In order to find out whether the increase in the number of tourist accommodation that has recently taken place in many Spanish cities is one of the factors affecting the increase in the price of housing, a study has been carried out to see whether it is real or not.
Thanks to the results of this study, it has been possible to confirm that there is indeed a relationship between the level of concentration of tourist housing and the increase in the price of housing.
Thus, in the results obtained in the same, it can be observed how the level of concentration of tourist use housing (VUT) by census sections significantly determines the evolution of the price of the dwelling.
Bases of the study
The study is based on the analysis of the concentration of tourist housing at census section level, with the individual geolocation of all tourist housing published in the Inside AirBnB and DataHippo portals, with the aim of selecting those provinces with a relevant level of penetration of tourist housing.
From this initial analysis, it is concluded that tourist housing (VUT) has a relevant level of penetration (above 1%), and sufficient to impact on price evolution, in eighteen Spanish provinces, which represent 70% of the population and 77% of registered housing in Spain, and it is in them that the analysis of the study focuses.
The key: the level of concentration
In a first global analysis of the provinces with a relevant level of VUT penetration, it could be concluded that effectively the level of concentration of tourist housing is among the five housing variables analysed that have the greatest impact on the evolution of the price, in addition to the province, the existence of an elevator, the price at the initial moment of the study and the height of the dwelling.
And it could be confirmed that, according to the data on price evolution in relation to the levels of concentration of VUT per census section, the higher the level of concentration of tourist housing, the higher the percentage of increase in the price of housing.
The analysis of the evolution of the price of housing throughout 2018 in relation to the level of concentration of VUT in these provinces, also yielded a particularly relevant new conclusion: that the higher the level of concentration of tourist housing, the higher the price increase until reaching a certain level of concentration that we can indicate as a ‘saturation point’, from which the price behaviour worsens in such a way that the level of increase decreases or even leads to decrease.
Results by zones
The study has also established four zones of homogeneous behaviour in relation to the evolution of house prices, on which the relationship between the level of concentration of VUT and house prices has been analysed in more detail: Litoral (which groups the provinces of the Mediterranean coast plus Cadiz, Huelva and Cantabria), Islas (with the analysis of both archipelagos), Madrid and Seville.
The coastal results confirm the general trend of higher price increases at higher VUT concentration levels, as well as clear symptoms of saturation from concentration levels above 7% where the price growth level begins to decline.
This trend is observed in all the provinces of the area, highlighting also how the slowdown is similar both in the case of coastal municipalities as in the capitals, despite the much higher levels of price increase in the case of the latter.
On the contrary, in the case of the provinces of the area analyzed in detail (Barcelona, Valencia and Malaga) the deceleration is greater in the coastal municipalities. It also highlights how the majority of housing in Barcelona capital (67%), Valencia capital (64%) and the municipalities of the Malaga coast (82%) are in areas with a high level of concentration of tourist housing.
In the general analysis of the ‘Islands’ area, the level of concentration of VUT appears as the variable with the greatest impact on the evolution of the price. It also highlights that 54% of housing in the archipelagos are in census sections with a relevant level of concentration of tourist housing, a percentage that rises to 66% in municipalities other than provincial capitals. In spite of this, the price deceleration in the highest sections of VUT concentration is more pronounced in the case of the capitals.
However, the analysis by provinces, while the Balearic Islands and Las Palmas de Gran Canaria reproduce this general trend and give clear signs of saturation, Salta Cruz de Tenerife presents ‘saturation point’ or has not yet reached it.
In the case of the province of Madrid only the capital presents a relevant level of penetration of tourist housing and although in the general analysis of the municipality no symptoms of saturation are observed, maintaining the general trend of greater price increase at a higher level of concentration of VUT, it is observed in the analysis by districts.
Thus, we can see how in the districts Centro, Chamberí and Salamanca the level of increase in the price of housing begins to decrease in the highest levels of concentration of VUT.
In this sense it is worth noting that the districts that present relevant levels of concentration of tourist housing coincide with the districts where the price has increased the most throughout 2018 and that in most of these districts more than half of the houses are concentrated in census sections with significant levels of penetration of tourist housing. Particularly noteworthy is the central district, where 87% of households are located in census sections with a concentration level higher than 7%.
As in Madrid, in the province of Seville only the capital presents a relevant level of penetration of tourist housing. It also highlights that the level of concentration of VUT is the variable that most affects the evolution of the price of housing.
The general trend of greater price increase at a higher level of concentration occurs in all districts that have a relevant level of VUT, but while in the districts Historic Center, Palmera-Bellavista and Los Remedios show signs of saturation, do not do the districts Este-Alcosa-Torreblanca or Cerro-Amate. In the latter case it is also striking how the evolution of the price goes from negative to positive as the level of concentration of tourist housing increases.
Finally, it should be noted that 90% of the dwellings in the Historic Centre district are located in census sections with a concentration level of VUT greater than 7%.